Rachat De Credit

rachat de crédits: The Daily Shot: La courbe du Trésor "Kink" est parti – Daily Shot -Simulation


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The Daily Shot: 08-Nov-19
Tarifs
• crédit
• actions
• énergie
• matières premières
• marchés émergents
• Chine
• Asie Pacifique
• le Royaume-Uni
• la zone euro
• Europe
• les États-Unis
• matière à réflexion

Tarifs

1. Les achats sur le compte T de la Fed continuent.

Cependant, jusqu'à présent, il n'y a pas eu d'augmentation correspondante des réserves excédentaires.

La raison en est l’émission rapide de la dette du Trésor américain, qui a eu pour conséquence une augmentation considérable des soldes de trésorerie. L'augmentation des dépôts du gouvernement auprès de la Fed a soustrait des liquidités au secteur privé.

En conséquence, la demande de financement des prises en pension reste robuste. Les soldes des pensions de la Fed dépassent 200 milliards de dollars.

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2. Les fonds de la Fed ont davantage de possibilités de tomber en dessous du taux d'intérêt neutre.

Source: Stifel

 

3. However, the market is now pricing in less than one Fed rate cut over the next couple of years. Here is the implied fed funds rate trajectory.

 

4. The probability of another rate cut this year dipped below 10% in response to the news of a potential US-China « interim » trade deal.

 

5. The Treasury curve is now positively sloping across all maturities (the kink is gone).

 

6. The Fed’s official communications show a rebound in language indicating agreement.

Source: Arbor Research & Trading

 


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Credit

1. According to Moody’s, delinquencies in US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are at their lowest levels since September 2009. Over the past year, retail properties had the highest delinquency rate, while industrials had the lowest.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

 

The Midwest is experiencing the highest commercial mortgage delinquency rate, although total delinquencies are falling for all US regions.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

 

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2. We are in the late phase of the credit cycle.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

3. Next, we have some updates on the muni market.

The spread between taxable munis and corporate bonds is elevated.

Source: First Principles Capital Management

 

Heavier new issuance in Q3 boosted the muni/Treasury yield ratios. Analysts expect this trend to persist in the near-term.

Source: First Principles Capital Management

 

Expenses are outpacing revenues across US cities, while S&P estimates slower GDP growth.

Source: Janney

 


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Equities

1. The market cap of the ten largest companies (as a share of the S&P 500 total capitalization) is significantly above average.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

2. The performance of US equities versus the rest of the world is reflective of cyclical swings in the US dollar.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

3. This chart shows inflation-adjusted earnings per share for the Russell 3000 (broad US market).

Source: @TaviCosta

 

4. Stifel expects S&P 500 cyclicals to outperform defensives next year based on the firm’s forecast for higher US nominal GDP growth.

Source: Stifel

 

5. Next, we have some sector updates.

Changes in consensus earnings estimates:

Source: Oxford Economics

 

Consensus earnings growth for the current quarter:

Source: @FactSet; Read full article

 

Year-to-date performance:

Source: Yardeni Research

 

MLPs (pipeline companies) have been getting clobbered in recent weeks.

 

Source: @BarronsOnline; Read full article

 

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Energy:

 

Semiconductors:

 

Transportation/logstics:

 

Consumer Staples:

 

Homebuilders (pressured by higher mortgage rates):

 

Utilities and REITs (hurt by higher Treasury yields):

 

Banks (boosted by higher Treasury yields):

 

We’ve had a triple bottom for banks vs. the S&P 500.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Many financial stocks offer a dividend yield above the 10-year Treasury yield, which should be positive for the sector.

Source: Stifel

 


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Energy

1. The shift in the Brent futures term structure could signal a tighter market.

Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research

 

2. WTI crude oil usually rises when managed money short positioning is at such extreme levels.

Source: Stifel

 

3. WTI crude oil continues to hold support.

Source: @DantesOutlook

 

4. Refinery inputs remain soft relative to last year.

 


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Commodities

1. It’s been a rough week for gold amid rising Treasury yields.

Source: @DavidInglesTV

 

2. Soy meal futures surged on hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade dispute.

 


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Emerging Markets

1. Pantheon Macroeconomics has been negative on Chile’s economy, forecasting further rate cuts.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

2. Peru’s central bank cut rates again.

 

3. Brazil’s CPI continues to moderate.

 

4. South Africa’s manufacturing output remains soft.

 

5. EM equities have been outperforming the S&P 500 recently (in dollar terms).

 


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China

1. The PBoC trimmed the 1yr MLF rate this week (see story). It’s a symbolic move, but will we see more easing?

Source: ANZ Research

 

Source: Gavekal 

 

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2. China’s courts are processing more bankruptcies.

Source: @WSJ; Read full article

 

Problem loans keep climbing.

Source: @WSJ; Read full article

 

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3. Taiwan’s export orders point to a rebound in China’s economic activity.

Source: Danske Bank

 

Also, the OECD leading indicator suggests somewhat stronger Chinese growth going forward.

Source: OECD, @jsblokland

 

China’s moderate rebound should give a boost to the global economy.

Source: Danske Bank

 

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4. Stock market volatility continues to decline.

Source: @TheTerminal

 


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Asia – Pacific

1. South Korea is facing some demographic challenges.

Source: ANZ Research

 

Source: @WSJ; Read full article

 

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2. Next, we have some updates on Australia.

Is construction activity stabilizing?

 

Lending was strong in September, mostly for owner-occupied housing, while investment housing loan balances declined. The latter reduction could help ease Australia’s speculative housing bubble.

Source: @IFM_Economist

 

Retail sales have been soft.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

The rise in Australia’s share prices have been broad-based this year, with resource stocks (supported by higher iron ore prices) outperforming financials (hit by lower yields).

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

 

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3. Next, we have the October changes in Asia’s business activity by sector.

Source: IHS Markit; Read full article

 


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The United Kingdom

1. The BoE struck a dovish tone, with two MPC members voting to cut rates.

 

Source: @WSJ; Read full article

 

The pound sank in response.

 

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2. Hiring activity remains soft.

Source: IHS Markit; Read full article

 

3. According to the Halifax index, home price appreciation is holding in positive territory (barely).

 


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The Eurozone

1. German construction activity rebounded last month.

 

Also, will the auto sector lead manufacturing out of recession?

Source: TS Lombard

 

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2. French productivity gains have been impressive.

Source: @Noahpinion, @bopinion; Read full article

 

Separately, Macron’s approval ratings seem to have leveled off.

Source: @EuropeElects

 

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3. The Greek unemployment rate continues to drift lower.

 

Greek/German bond spreads keep tightening.

 

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4. Disinflationary winds continue to blow across the Eurozone.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

5. The Eurozone’s manufacturing sector has been contracting for some time. However, its more domestically oriented sectors have been doing well.

Source: European Commission; Read full article

 


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Europe

1. European banks have been outperforming as bond yields climb.

 

2. Stocks in the S&P Europe 350 index with a majority of foreign revenue exposure have outperformed the broader market over the past ten years.

Source: Caldan Partners ; Read full article

 

3. Here are the European Commission’s growth forecasts.

Source: @ecfin, @pierremoscovici; Read full article

 


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The United States

1. Consumer credit growth slowed in September.

 

Source: MarketWatch; Read full article

 

Credit card balances have declined for two months in a row.

 

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2. Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index slipped in recent weeks.

 

Consumers appear to be concerned about their financial situation.

 

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3. Initial jobless claims remain at multi-year lows.

 

4. Next, we have some updates on housing finance.

According to Black Knight, there has been a rise in early-stage delinquencies (6-months after origination), mostly among first-time homebuyers. Repeat buyers are showing steadier performance.

Source: Black Knight

 

A slight uptick in mortgage rates has cut the population of refinance candidates by 30% over the past month.

Source: Black Knight

 

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5. Here is a comment on the jobs market from Jeoff Hall, Managing Economist at Refinitiv.

Almost 50% (46.6%) of the 131k increase in private nonfarm employment in October came from a 61k increase in leisure and hospitality, the lowest-paying industry in terms of average hourly earnings. This industry also accounted for more than one-third of all growth in private nonfarm employment in both August and September. In the last three months, employment in the leisure and hospitality industry has risen by 154k, or a 3.9% annualized rate, making it far and away the fastest-growing sector of the services economy (or the total economy for that matter). We do not consider that a healthy aspect of the overall U.S. labor market. These will be among the first jobs to go in a recession.

Source: Refinitiv

 

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Food for Thought

1. Top factors for Millennials when evaluating potential jobs:

Source: FlexJobs; Read full article

 

2. Time spent on household activities:

Source: BLS

 

3. US motor vehicle operators:

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

4. Views on globalization:

Source: Capital Economics

 

5. Business school applications:

Source: @WSJ; Read full article

 

6. Substance abuse impact:

Source: Statista

 

7. Who will be next to drop out of the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination race? Here is what the betting markets tell us.

Source: @PredictIt

 

8. Observations from the ice core record suggest that current atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than anything the Earth has experienced in the last 400,000 years.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

9. Federal cannabis-related revenue:

Source: Cannabis Law Report ; Read full article

 

10. Third-most spoken language by country:

Source: @TheEconomist; Read full article

 

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Have a great weekend!

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